Futures thinking is a structured approach to envisioning diverse future scenarios, driven by profound global socio-economic shifts. It prompts governments, businesses, communities, and individuals to proactively envisage and prepare for varied potential outcomes.

The urgency is paramount, demanding significant adaptations in employment, economic governance, personal interactions, and societal impacts. This shift necessitates a radical revaluation of communication, work, and life norms. Businesses and governments must adapt to evolving market demands and citizen needs, reimagining public service delivery on a global scale.

Adopting a visionary and creative mindset towards future possibilities is crucial for transforming the present world into a better one, avoiding the pitfalls of a collectively unprepared approach to inevitable changes. In an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world, futures thinking equips us with the mindset and tools needed for conscious future planning, enabling informed decisions today for a desirable tomorrow.

What is Futures Thinking

Futures thinking is a discipline of thinking about the future in a structured way, using approaches, methods and techniques to generate value through the exploration of alternative futures. What is asked in futures thinking is not “what will happen?“, as would be the case with traditional forecasting studies, but “what could happen?“.

Futures thinking speaks explicitly of futures, deliberately in the plural, eschewing any logic of predetermination, in order to identify a number of alternative scenarios, even before entering into the merits of which are actually more likely to materialise.

Futures thinking is a relatively young discipline that is often associated with futures studies, from which it inherits part of the theoretical assumptions, seeking to operationalise them. Through a series of specific methods and techniques, futures thinking aims to help public and private organisations identify possible scenarios in the medium and long term (generally 10 years or more), in order to make more informed decisions in the present.

Based on this premise, it is important to clarify two aspects. The differences between futures thinking versus forecasting models and the mind-set that makes an activity aimed at investigating alternative futures truly effective.

Foresight (Futures Thinking) vs Forecast (predictive models)

The distinction between futures thinking and conventional predictive models is critical, along with recognizing the mindset conducive to effectively investigating alternative futures. Futures thinking, or foresight, stands in stark contrast to forecasting, which traditionally focuses on short-term predictions based on historical data analysis. While forecasting aims to predict future outcomes with certainty, relying on artificial intelligence and advanced data analytics, foresight emphasizes a more nuanced, flexible approach. It advocates for strategic planning that is adaptive and responsive to the uncertainties of a VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) environment.

The objective of forecasting is to predict the future with certainty, based on the knowledge available in the present, which remains the temporal dimension one focuses on.

Foresight’s objective isn’t to pinpoint the most probable future but to outline a spectrum of scenarios that guide predictions, strategies, or innovative policies. This approach seeks to extend vision beyond immediate constraints while remaining pragmatically linked to present realities. It updates scenario hypotheses to inform strategic decisions that are best aligned with potential future developments.

The objective of futures thinking is not to identify with certainty the future that is most likely to occur, but to identify a series of alternative scenarios within which to place one’s forecasts, strategies or innovative policies, with all the flexibility that is required in view of the actual turn of events over the following years.

In essence, futures thinking aims to proactively anticipate change, advocating for a shift from the constraints of the present to a broader consideration of future possibilities. It encourages organizations to prepare for change by envisioning and adapting to a range of potential futures, thus highlighting its role as a key discipline in the anticipation and navigation of future trends and challenges.

The foundational mindset of Futures Thinking

Before engaging with the specific models, methods, and techniques that facilitate futures thinking projects, it is paramount to concentrate on the foundational mindset essential for studying alternative futures. This mindset ought to prioritize exploring the realm of possibilities, intentionally distancing itself from the tangible realities of the present to avoid any biases or influences stemming from existing situational contexts.

Facilitators leading futures thinking sessions must possess not only the skill but also the readiness to actively involve stakeholders. They should offer perspectives on futures that extend beyond the realms people typically envisage based on their prior experiences. This strategy is designed to unearth genuinely innovative scenarios that pave the way for pioneering business opportunities, such as the identification of potential markets that, while currently beyond imagination, might feasibly emerge in the future under conducive conditions for specific scenarios to manifest tangibly.

Another critical dimension of the mindset integral to futures thinking is the commitment to perceiving a context not as a collection of isolated elements but as an intricately connected ecosystem. In this ecosystem, components have the potential to mutually influence their evolution over time. Viewing change should not be limited to contemplating a series of discrete possibilities, even if they represent insightful breakthroughs. Instead, it necessitates envisioning change as a coherent system that can be conceptualized through collaborative design methods and activities, thereby necessitating a scientific approach akin to that of design thinking.

Viewed from this angle, futures thinking evolves into a continuous process, deeply embedded in the mindset of those who are not just looking towards the future but are actively seeking out new and viable alternative scenarios. This approach deliberately liberates itself from the constraints of what is currently deemed feasible, drawing parallels to the observant nature of design thinking but with a focus shifted towards imagining futures that do not yet exist.

A future thinker well-versed in this discipline, as we shall discuss, is thus not only technically and methodologically proficient in the practice of futures thinking but also boasts a broad, multidisciplinary understanding of the socio-cultural, technological, political, and economic landscape in which they operate. A profound comprehension of these diverse factors is crucial for accurately assessing the potential impacts of certain events when projected onto an evolutionary timeline.

Finally, it’s vital for a contemporary futures thinker to fine-tune their imaginative abilities, enhancing their capacity to assist others in conceptualizing futures. This involves nurturing an environment where imaginative thinking is encouraged, enabling individuals and organizations to envision and navigate the myriad possibilities that the future holds.

Advantages of Futures Thinking

Embracing futures thinking delivers significant benefits for organizations, both independently and when integrated with other disciplinary approaches. The fusion of futures thinking with design thinking is increasingly common; the former focuses on identifying problems, while the latter applies creative problem-solving techniques.

Key advantages of futures thinking in fostering innovation include:

Overcoming Habitual Thinking

By projecting over ten years into the future, organizations can detach from current limitations and innovate without today’s constraints. This detachment is crucial for moving beyond conventional patterns and envisaging unrestricted future scenarios.

Anticipating Change

Futures thinking facilitates the discovery of completely new scenarios, allowing organizations to envision possible changes and identify the drivers behind potential shifts. This anticipation enables the formulation of strategies to capitalize on upcoming opportunities.

Proactive Approach to Uncertainties

Cultivating a mindset geared towards scenario evaluation naturally leads to a proactive approach to future possibilities, including unforeseen situations. Consistent application of futures thinking equips companies and public entities to effectively address potential challenges.

New Business Opportunities

Aligned with the goal of preempting change, futures thinking empowers companies to pinpoint a variety of conducive situations for spawning new business ventures, addressing both potential future scenarios and the emerging needs vital for realizing these envisioned states.

Enhanced Contextual Understanding through Futures Thinking

This approach analyses future contexts to uncover socio-economic, cultural, and technological implications, enhancing present understanding and preparing for distant scenarios. This process facilitates a strategic “return to the present,” enriching understanding of scenarios that, although distant in time and factors, influence strategic planning today.

Diversity in Skills and Perspectives

Futures thinking involves assembling key stakeholders from various change processes, fostering an environment of shared, participative planning. This collaborative space welcomes participants with multidisciplinary skills and backgrounds, ensuring a breadth of perspectives for crafting comprehensive visions of alternative futures. The diversity of foresight process participants directly correlates with the strategic depth and innovation potential of the outcomes.

Creativity Boost via Futures Thinking

Specific foresight tools, like horizon scanning, are designed to delve into the ramifications of particular trends within future landscapes. Futures thinking thus offers a robust framework for a creative approach to both problem identification and resolution, seamlessly integrating with design thinking methodologies. Engaging a spectrum of multidisciplinary viewpoints is crucial for stimulating creative cross-pollination and embracing diversity that significantly enhances the quest for forthcoming opportunities. Futures thinking aims not at finding ready solutions but at surfacing potential challenges for future resolution, addressing scenarios currently beyond our ken. A creative, multidisciplinary strategy significantly boosts the research potential.

Facilitating Effective Future-oriented Design

When applied efficiently, futures thinking can serve as a proactive precursor to and complement for design thinking, offering a foundation for innovative solutions that preempt future market shifts. By stepping beyond the confines of current knowledge and context, it allows designers to pioneer changes with solutions that, though potentially seen as premature by today’s standards, meet tomorrow’s unarticulated market demands. This forward-thinking approach encourages taking calculated risks to innovate, securing a competitive advantage by being first to market with solutions poised for long-term dominance. Aligned with the objective of anticipating change, futures thinking equips companies to detect various scenarios conducive to new business opportunities, related to potential scenarios and emerging needs.

Applying the principles of Futures Thinking

The principles of futures thinking have increasingly attracted attention, leading to the development of various operational models globally to envision future scenarios over the medium to long term. Notable frameworks include:

– The Foresight-Insight-Action Cycle by the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in Palo Alto, California, a foundational element of futures studies established in 1968 as a RAND Corporation spin-off by Paul Baran, Arnold Kramish, and Frank Davidson. This model has significantly influenced the evolution of futures thinking.

– Generic Foresight by Joseph Voros, a physicist and researcher at Swinburne University of Technology and a prominent figure in foresight. His work spans various roles, including a stint at Netscape and efforts to translate the World Wide Web into Esperanto, contributing to major futures studies publications.

– The UNESCO Futures Literacy Framework, led by Riel Miller at UNESCO, Paris, focuses on fostering futures literacy as a means to navigate change, with Miller heading Foresight since 2012.

– The Competence Centre of Foresight of the European Commission, created in 2018 to instill a future-oriented strategic culture within the European Commission, adapting popular foresight tools for public and non-commercial organizational use, accessible on the Commission’s website.

Selecting the optimal framework for futures thinking is complex, as each offers established tools and methods widely used in diverse organizations. Expert future thinkers tailor their approach, choosing suitable tools based on the organization’s needs, often blending futures thinking with design thinking methods.

Futures thinking frameworks share key features, such as a long-term outlook (10 to 50 years) and collaborative methods engaging a wide range of stakeholders, aiming to enhance the understanding of future scenarios to improve present-day decision-making. Mastery of futures thinking thus entails grasping the concept of futures and the principles for exploring alternative scenarios.

The Three Laws of Futures

Very often, foresight falls prey to the prejudice of those who understand it as a practice that is indeed visionary, but in a derogatory sense, i.e. disconnected from an actual function and usefulness in the daily practice of things. In reality, those who claim this have probably been influenced by the actions of some incompetents who pass themselves off as futurists without possessing the skills and experience to carry out this profession in a deontologically correct manner.

Futures thinking is not a crystal ball game, but a scientific discipline with years of study and research in the field to prove its actual practicality, provided you turn to truly competent professionals to implement it properly.

Serious futures thinkers do not set themselves up as sorcerer’s apprentices capable of predicting the future, but base their consulting activities on years of study and experience with techniques and methods that have been consolidated over decades of continuous research on the subject. To better understand what this is all about, it is useful to quote what is identified as the three laws of futures, by Roy Amara, former president of the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in Palo Alto. It was in 1981 when Amara theorised three fundamental principles of futures studies.

What follows is a more current version of the three laws of futures, recently adapted by the unmistakable creativity of Joseph Voros, in his celebrated foresight primer, first published in 2001 in the pages of the Foresight Bulletin of the Swinbourne University of Technology (Melbourne, Australia).

The future is not predetermined

Central to understanding the dynamics of the universe is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, which posits that at a fundamental level, physical processes are inherently unpredictable. This intrinsic indeterminacy implies that the future, emerging from such processes, cannot be fixed. Instead of a singular, preordained future, a spectrum of potential futures is conceivable, each contingent on a myriad of variables that defy precise forecasting.

The future is not predictable

This principle, while seemingly echoing the first, addresses a distinct nuance: the impossibility of achieving a complete and accurate forecast of the future, even hypothetically. The complexity of variables and the inherent limitations in our capacity to gather and process exhaustive data sets mean that any attempt to model the future is bound to encounter insurmountable inaccuracies. Such unpredictability necessitates a pragmatic approach to futures thinking, where the emphasis shifts from attempting to predict a single outcome to recognizing and navigating among multiple possible futures.

Future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present

Acknowledging the unpredictability and non-deterministic nature of the future does not imply resignation to fate. On the contrary, it highlights the significant influence of present actions and decisions on shaping future outcomes. This principle asserts that, although we cannot foresee which of the potential futures will materialize, our current choices have the power to steer the course towards preferred scenarios.

Voros’s reflection brings to the fore the ethical dimension of futures thinking—emphasizing our responsibility towards the future and underscoring the proactive role we must play in shaping it. Our decisions act as filters, narrowing down the realm of possibilities to a definitive reality, which, once realized, becomes immutable history. This reality underscores the critical importance of thoughtful and responsible decision-making in the present, as a means to sculpt a desirable future.

In essence, the three laws of futures underscore the complexity and fluidity of predicting and influencing future developments. They advocate for a strategic, informed approach to futures thinking, where foresight, responsibility, and ethical consideration guide our journey towards shaping tomorrow.

Potential Futures and the Futures Cone

The atlas of potential futures takes up the definitions first formulated by Professor Norman Henchey in 1978, who identified possible futures, plausible futures and probable futures as the main subjects of futures studies. Let’s look in detail at what they consist of, as well as contextualising a further option, consisting of preferable futures, a condition that deliberately contrasts with the first three.

Possible Futures

Possible futures basically include all alternative potential futures, involving all futures we can imagine, without any concern for the probability with which they might actually occur. Free space for imagination, then we will see. These are scenarios that might in fact require knowledge and technologies that at the time of the study are not yet available, have not been imagined or, in the most extreme cases, might involve blatant contradictions with the laws of physics currently known and universally recognised. Regardless of their content, possible futures remain conditioned by a range of knowledge that is unknown at the time we hypothesise them.

Plausible Futures

Plausible futures include futures that could occur on the basis of our current knowledge. Here one often reasons by exclusion. If a future is not precluded with respect to available knowledge, primarily technological knowledge, it is considered plausible, regardless of the actual probability of occurrence. Plausible futures are thus the result of hypotheses formulated consistently with the laws of physics and all the background knowledge that science has been able to accumulate over several centuries. For this reason, plausible futures correspond to a more restricted condition than possible futures.

Probable Futures

Probable futures denote those with a tangible likelihood of materialising, particularly as they extend from current circumstances, irrespective of their future timeframe. This extension stems not from a chronological sequence but from a correlation with existing trends. Nonetheless, trend-based scenarios are prone to considerable shifts over time. Simulations of the future, predicated on present insights and tendencies, may subsequently necessitate amendments as alterations in trends could lead to significant disruptions, undermining the previously assessed probabilities of these futures coming to pass. Engaging with probable futures thus requires an acknowledgment of our current repository of knowledge, paired with a discerning vision that remains realistic and closely aligned with the genuine chances of potential future events.”

Preferable Futures

Whereas possible, plausible and probable futures are conditioned by knowledge, preferable futures are defined by placing the desire for them to actually occur as the overriding element. In this case, the emotional component prevails over the typically cognitive one that drives the futures previously described. Being conditioned by an avowedly subjective value judgement, preferable futures envisage conditions that are difficult to frame in terms of actual probability, but prove useful when it comes to looking for goals to strive towards.

To explain the concept of preferable futures, Joseph Voros cites the example of man’s landing on the Moon (Apollo Moon Landing). What began as a preferable future for President Kennedy in 1961 remained a possible future for some time before becoming plausible, probable and finally authentic when Armstrong and co. finally set foot on the Earth’s satellite in 1969.

Presently, despite the presence of skeptics, the Moon landing is celebrated as one of the pinnacle achievements in human history. This milestone originated from a future vision that was deemed entirely implausible when first proposed. Absent the capacity to envisage a preferable future and to dedicate resources towards the acquisition of knowledge necessary to render it feasible, plausible, and likely, many of our significant breakthroughs would have remained unattainable.

To contextualize the range of potential futures, Trevor Hancock and Clement Bezold introduced the futures cone in 1994. This tool visually represents the diversity of futures, from the original trio to contemporary models that include up to eight different types. Voros expanded this model to encompass projected and preposterous futures, acknowledging the role of surpassing perceived limits in exploring the possible, inspired by the visionary Arthur C. Clarke.

This streamlined overview captures the essence of futures studies, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of envisioning and influencing the trajectory of human progress.

The translation you’ve provided captures the essential details about the fundamental principles of futures thinking and the role of the Institute for the Future. However, to refine it for clarity, formality, and brevity, while preserving the bullet points, here is a polished version:

The foundational principles of Futures Thinking: The role of the Institute for the Future

One of the most insightful documents in the history of future studies and futures thinking is the “Prospectus for an INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE,” published in November 1966. This strategic document laid the groundwork for the ITFT, established less than two years later. The Prospectus articulates with remarkable clarity the core principles that the ITFT was to adopt as guidelines for its activities. These principles, even more than fifty years after their formulation, still serve as effective guidelines for implementing foresight processes and related activities:

• Long-term and future-oriented: It will examine possible futures in terms of the plausibility of the steps needed to achieve them from the present. The temporal horizon will vary, ideally extending from five to fifty years.
• National focus: While it will address urban, regional, and international issues, its primary focus will be on non-military matters, though not excluding them, especially to prevent or mitigate conflict effects through non-military actions.
• Operationally oriented: It will stay within the realm of practical feasibility. Where appropriate, it will express, elucidate, and communicate its findings operationally, considering possible decisions among available options.
• Global scope: Relying on the interdisciplinary efforts of a diverse staff, its study results will be conscientiously validated and interpreted, considering their economic, psychological, political, and other consequences.
• Visionary by design: Encouraging contributions from physical and social engineers, educators, scientists, writers, and political and moral philosophers to construct or synthesize attainable future conditions. Subsequent analysis will assess feasibility, social desirability, and policy recommendations.
• Committed to intellectual integrity: Rejecting improper influence from any source, discouraging further vested interests among its administrative and professional staff, choosing funding methods with minimal intellectual constraints, remaining politically nonpartisan, and striving to ascertain the values promoted or denied by possible alternative political decisions.

Over fifty years, as some have humorously observed, the Institute for the Future has even surpassed its future projections. On the occasion of IFTF’s fiftieth anniversary, Executive Director Marina Gorbis, in her insightful piece “Five Principles for Thinking Like a Futurist,” emphasized once more that the goal of futures thinking is not to predict the future but to engage people in deep thinking about complex problems, to imagine new possibilities, connect signals into larger patterns, and link past, present, and future to make better choices today.

We conclude with the five principles Marina Gorbis advocates for being good futurists, as a hopeful sign for all possible futures, our introductory reflection on futures thinking:

• Forget about predictions
• Focus on signals
• Look back to see ahead
• Uncover new patterns
• Build a community