The VUCA model has long framed futures studieshttps://tech4future.info/en/futures4business-en/, aiming to forecast medium to long-term trends in economic and social contexts. Recently, the BANI model (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible) emerged as a contemporary alternative, promising a modern approach to scenario modeling. Originating in the 1980s, VUCA’s assumptions now face challenges from today’s vastly different technological, socio-economic, and geopolitical realities.

BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible): The New Reference Model in Futures Studies

The BANI model, introduced by Jamais Cascio in “Facing the Age of Chaos” (2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic, critiques VUCA’s applicability in our era of political unrest, climate crises, and pandemics. Cascio argues for a new framework to navigate this “era of chaos,” noting the inadequacy of traditional methods in a world defying clear boundaries.

Cascio’s BANI model, emphasizing Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible aspects, seeks to address the complexities of our time more accurately than VUCA. This new framework highlights the need for futures studies to adapt to evolving global dynamics, providing a lens to better understand and respond to the unpredictable nature of our contemporary world.

Let’s delve into the details of what Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible entail.

“B” for Brittle

The “B” in BANI stands for Brittle, indicating fragility, especially in contexts where systems or materials can collapse suddenly, potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes without warning. This fragility can stem from various factors.

Brittle materials, despite their good mechanical properties, are prone to instant breakage without showing prior signs of failure.

Fragile systems often fail abruptly under speculative pressures to maximize efficiency, aiming to extract the greatest possible value—be it money, power, food, or labor—from a scenario.

In a broader sense, a fragile system lacks resilience. An economy reliant on a single resource, like a monoculture, is vulnerable to obsolescence with disruptive changes, such as technological advances affecting its market. Dependence on a monoculture risks collapse if the resource’s demand suddenly drops.

Conversely, a supply chain relying on a single source for a resource showcases fragility, being non-resilient due to the lack of alternatives in a supply crisis, potentially causing the entire system to fail.

Historically, the notion of fragility is well-documented through famines and disasters impacting local settings. Yet, in the era of global digitalization, fragility takes on a broader scope, affecting the entire geopolitical, economic, and technological systems.

A global crisis triggered by fragility can destabilize contexts seemingly unrelated geographically or traditionally to the incident’s location.

Resources like energy, food, and the global market, prone to speculative dynamics seeking maximum profit, face fragility, particularly when sustainability is compromised. Interconnected fundamental systems can lead to unpredictable global collapses in both timing and magnitude.

 “A” for Anxious

Anxiety typically stems from deep uncertainty and the fear of making erroneous decisions, leading to negative mental states such as depression. Jamais Cascio describes an Anxious world as one where “every possible event or decision seems potentially disastrous.”

A common response to anxiety is to seek refuge in a protective dimension, shutting out world news under the assumption it only deals with tragedies or catastrophes.

Anxiety often results in a passive stance due to the perpetual fear of wrong decisions, ultimately leading to a total abdication of responsibility.

The media frequently fuel collective anxiety intentionally, a trend starkly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, where sensational headlines often overshadowed information accuracy and truthfulness.

Widespread misinformation exacerbates anxiety, further fueling misinformation, particularly through social media. This includes media exaggerations, hoaxes, scientific errors, and fake news, contributing to an inescapable state of anxiety.

This climate of chaos benefits those who speculate on misinformation to manipulate public opinion for personal gain. In this scenario, where contradictory information abounds, it becomes challenging to discern credible sources, often leading to belief in the first information encountered without necessary verification.

Generally, anxiety causes a total loss of control over situations and events, which were previously taken for granted in traditional contexts.

 “N” for Non-linear

Non-linearity arises when cause and effect disconnect or produce anomalously disproportionate effects, devoid of logic.

In this realm, actions often yield unbalanced consequences; seemingly minor decisions can have far-reaching, either beneficial or disastrous, outcomes. Conversely, significant resource investments might only achieve negligible results, falling short of expectations.

Jamais Cascio introduced the BANI framework during the COVID-19 pandemic to highlight non-linear phenomena. The pandemic, striking unpredictably, caused global chaos by disproportion between containment efforts and infection spread, showcasing evident imbalances.

Climate change serves as another non-linear example, where effects accelerate unexpectedly beyond scientific forecasts, with weather events becoming increasingly severe compared to established climatological data.

The disproportionate impacts of climate change suggest the result of continuous carbon emissions since the 1970s, but the global system’s response has been non-linear, without a steady decline. The delayed effects after decades of inaction led to a sudden and “hysterical” worsening, highlighting regret over ignoring the Kyoto Protocol, which aimed to curb emissions to sustainable levels.

Non-linearity is often fueled by human irrationality in decision-making, manifesting in international terrorism, cybercrime, financial speculation, and other areas with disproportionate cause and effect, contributing to global crises.

While non-linearity is recognized biologically, our current times reveal discoveries both fascinating and concerning.

 “I” for Incomprehensible

We often encounter seemingly illogical and nonsensical events and decisions, prompting questions like “Why did they do it? How did it happen?” according to Jamais Cascio. Yet, seeking answers often proves futile, as the search for more information doesn’t always enhance understanding. The abundance of information can blur the distinction between noise and signals, leading to incomprehensibility as the ultimate state of information overload.

Incomprehensible phenomena arise from various processes that seem flawed yet function. For example, a programmer attempting to refine a complex and inefficient code structure may inadvertently disrupt previously stable functionality. Often, these phenomena defy logical explanation and are accepted as given.

Cascio points out that incomprehensibility is somewhat inherent in machine learning and artificial intelligence systems. As these systems grow in complexity, explaining their decision-making effects becomes more challenging, often leading to acceptance of results without full understanding of the underlying dynamics.

This situation has ethical ramifications, especially as AI regulatory bodies confront the issue of explainability—how algorithms derive decisions from data learning. The mystery of incomprehensibility isn’t confined to technology but has significant social and economic impacts, particularly if AI makes questionable decisions on sensitive issues. Data specialists work tirelessly to mitigate biases in machine learning outcomes.

However, Cascio notes, what is incomprehensible today might not necessarily remain so indefinitely.

Why is the VUCA Model Considered Outdated by Some Futurists?

Jamais Cascio’s “Facing the Age of Chaos” has sparked debate among experts, with many futurists echoing his critique. Cascio advocates for the BANI framework, asserting that VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) has served well in past decades by highlighting decision-making challenges amid rapid technological and cultural shifts. However, these concepts have become foundational to strategic planning, making VUCA seem outdated in our more chaotic, incomprehensible reality, despite its clarity and widespread use in future studies, hence the need for BANI.

VUCA and BANI: Both Useful from Different Perspectives in the Same Future Vision

Cascio proposes BANI as a more fitting framework for today’s paradigm, seeking not just to make sense of present decisions but also to anticipate their broader consequences. He suggests that VUCA and BANI are not necessarily antagonistic but can coexist, offering complementary perspectives for understanding and navigating the complexities of future scenarios.

Indeed, as VUCA helps master volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity in future scenarios, BANI can provide a more detailed understanding of the consequences of present decisions.

BANI Focuses on Reactions, Not Just Answers

Cascio argues that BANI’s approach to the undefined nature of current challenges doesn’t aim for definitive answers but rather initiates reactions to chaotic situations. He posits that the components of BANI—Brittleness, Anxiety, Non-linearity, Incomprehensibility—invite responses that can lead to resilience, empathy, contextualization, flexibility, transparency, and intuition, providing pathways to navigate through and find answers within a chaotic world.