In the Strategic Foresight Report 2023, the European Commission has outlined key priorities that focus primarily on sustainability and the well-being of citizens.
The Strategic Foresight Report 2023 conveys a clear and significant message: there can be no sustainable transition, or more precisely, a transition towards sustainability, without placing people at the heart of decisions in economic, digital, and environmental matters. The European Union firmly believes in this principle and has explicitly stated it in the Strategic Foresight Report 2023, immediately bringing human value to the forefront. This is corroborated by the title chosen for the Strategic Foresight Report 2023, published by the EU Commission: “Sustainability and the well-being of citizens as the linchpin of Europe’s open strategic autonomy.“
The fundamental premise is that, while committed to a profound transition encompassing both the green and digital shifts aimed at achieving climate neutrality, the European Union must advance towards a novel economic model. This model ought to acknowledge the interconnections among the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability.
There’s a discernible alignment with the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) objectives pursued by corporations. However, in the case of the EU, the scope is significantly broader, directly or indirectly involving nearly 750 million inhabitants.
To ensure that the sustainable transition is firmly rooted in the well-being of individuals and society, the report lists ten areas of focus. These range from the need for a new European social contract to an emphasis on civil protection strategies, duly strengthened for effective preventative action and aimed at enhancing climate resilience.
In any case, what the report intends to prioritize is the anthropocentric value. This is made clear right from the introduction: in order for such sustainable transformation to be realised, it reports:
“It is essential to acknowledge the connections between the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability. This will enable Europe to pursue a forward-looking geopolitical strategy that effectively leverages its unique strengths, namely its distinctive social market economy and its status as the world’s largest trading bloc.“
TAKEAWAYS
Strategic Foresight Report 2023: The Foundation for a Long-Term EU Discussion and Vision
The Strategic Foresight Report 2023 is a document that presents a long-term vision, specifically that of the European Union. It involves exploring the future to support the development of adequate EU policies.
“It involves using collective intelligence in a structured and systematic way to help develop potential transition pathways, prepare the EU to withstand shocks, and shape the desired future.”
Presented last July, the report from the EU Commission will serve as an informational tool for the discussion of European leaders at the informal European Council in Granada, in October 2023. The following month, the Commission will organize, together with the European Parliament, the annual conference on the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). It will be an opportunity to “test and discuss the core findings of the 2024 report on interinstitutional global trends, jointly prepared by the EU institutions, and to reflect on the way forward. This year’s edition captures the outcomes of previous ones, dedicated to the themes of resilience (2020), EU’s strategic autonomy (2021), and the combination of the green and digital transition.”
Sustainable, Green, and Digital Transition: Investments and Priorities
The European Union has ambitious plans and substantial investments for sustainable transition, encompassing both digital and green transitions.
For the green transition (which includes the energy transition but also a significant green transformation in industry, construction, and transport), it is estimated that more than 620 billion euros per year will be required in investments to meet the targets set by the Green Deal and Repower EU. Furthermore, the EU intends to allocate 578 billion euros, about a third of its budget, to climate actions for the period 2021-2027.
To implement the digital transition, investments of 125 billion euros per year will be needed.
However, these substantial allocations will not be sufficient without the necessary economic (involvement of both private and public capital), social, environmental, and geopolitical considerations.
There are multiple factors to consider: the situation in Ukraine, health crises (the COVID-19 pandemic), the prospects for a globalization that still needs to be reconfigured, and the uncertainties generated by the climate crisis are considered alongside issues affecting the European population. Some considerations emerging from the report include:
“The priority attention that has been given to economic factors without duly considering the quality of growth and employment has encouraged unsustainable production practices and consumption patterns. Yet environmental resources, which are not infinite, form the very foundation of economic activity: for example, 72% of the 4.2 million businesses in the euro area are heavily dependent on at least one nature-related service.“
Even the consideration of GDP, which remains the most important indicator of a country’s economic outcomes, can no longer be regarded as a comprehensive parameter for measuring progress, “as it does not fully reflect the significant environmental and social challenges of our time.”
Between the Need for Investments and Social Equity
To implement a sustainable transition, investments will be required, not just financial but also in skill development, which must keep pace with technological evolution and the need for suitable profiles. Additionally, efforts must be made to ensure that the transition’s benefits are accessible to all.
The Strategic Foresight Report 2023 does not fail to highlight this, identifying economic and social disparities not only within the population but also among various states as a critical issue. There will also need to be intergenerational equity, in terms of labor rights, access to healthcare, and the ability to live in healthy living environments. It is perfectly understood that inequalities are deeply linked to a decline in trust in both national and EU institutions and in liberal democracy at large.
The ten priority actions outlined in the Strategic Foresight Report 2023
Having set the necessary premises, the document outlines the main sectors and priorities for action, identifying ten in total. The foremost among these concerns the need to establish a new European social contract suitable for a sustainable future. There is a need for living and working conditions that allow everyone to lead a life of dignity, supported by adequate welfare policies.
Furthermore, it is imperative to leverage the single market to foster a net-zero emission economy. In this context, it is essential to highlight what is necessary to achieve this goal, from raw materials (including critical materials and rare earths, but not limited to these) to the tools required, without overlooking the proper support for the research and development of necessary technologies.
As a third priority for action, the report points out the necessity to strengthen the interconnections between the EU’s internal and external policies, also to promote the EU’s offerings and narrative on the global stage.
The European Commission is also aware that it is necessary to support the shift towards sustainability in production and consumption through reforms and investments aimed at decarbonizing the economy, in order not to impact biodiversity and to minimize the ecological footprint of consumption. In this regard, greater awareness among citizens is also required, achievable through appropriate communication and cultural dissemination efforts.
The economic discourse is never peripheral: hence, there is also a noted necessity to progress towards an “Investment Europe,” increasing private financial flows to support strategic investments for transitions.
A sustainable transition also requires adjusting public budgets for sustainability purposes, as well as further focusing strategic and economic indicators on sustainable and inclusive well-being.
As it is necessary for everyone to benefit, it is also essential that everyone can effectively contribute to the transition towards sustainability.
Lastly, it is crucial to strengthen democracy, including through greater active involvement of citizens and placing generational equity at the heart of the decision-making process, and to integrate civil protection with “civil prevention,” enhancing the EU’s tools for preparation and response.
The Strategic Foresight Report 2023 does not fail to include, as a worthy conclusion, a purpose above all others:
“The transition towards sustainability is founded on a triple promise: a healthy planet and a thriving environment, economic growth decoupled from resource use and environmental degradation; the assurance that no person and no place will be left behind”.
For Europe to keep these promises, it is essential that sustainability is placed at the core of the EU’s open strategic autonomy.
